Romney is going to Win–Another look at the Electoral College: A look from mid-September

By Cris Pace

I wanted to hold off on this, it’s the same look at statistics that utterly bore me, but Republicans are proving to be the biggest worriers in the world.

But I can’t entirely blame them.

You have half brained radio talk show hosts spouting doom and gloom for Romney and the Republican party without anything to back it up (Levin, Ingram, Limbaugh, Bruce…yeah I mean you guys, I know your mentally challenged boys Santorum and Newt didn’t win, but shut up, you clearly are not the voice of the future of this party, just admit it and leave).

You have CNN oversampling Democrats to give Obama a 6 point lead…of course when you correct for the skewing Romney has an 8 point lead. 

In that same poll Romney had a 14 point lead with independents. 

You have an ABC/Washington Post Poll that only gave Obama a 10 point lead with Democrats over Republicans (look at the last question on the poll).  And even with oversampling Democrats they could only come up with Obama leading Romney by 1 point.  Worse yet, Obama only has a 5 point lead among women (I’m sure if we hadn’t over sampled that lead would drop into the margin of error).

You have simple facts, like the fact that Obama couldn’t fill an entire stadium so they had to move it inside.  Which tells me that enthusiasm is down, way down.

Or the economics model that’s been right every time since 1980 predicts a Romney win. 

You have steadily worsening economic numbers.  Least of which is that Moody’s is about to downgrade us again.  Obama may try to blame the Republicans for that, but the fact is that Americans, for better or worse, believe that the buck stops in the Oval Office (and this time they would be right in blaming a president for economic disaster).

Now here are some things to consider right now.  The polls for this week will show a slight bounce, but it’s called a bounce for a reason, it will come down.  All of Obama’s bases are pissed at him for one reason or another and they are not likely to come out for him in the numbers they did in 2008.  Further you must keep in mind, as Dick Morris keeps pointing out, the undecided voters always, always, always break two-thirds for the challenger.

Now according to Rasmussen (the most accurate polling firm in 2008 ) at the height of the bounce Obama is up only by 2 points in swing states. wo points.  Two measly points is his bounce in swing states.  Here’s Rasmussen’s Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.  I hate to say this but Romney is probably not winning Pennsylvania or Colorado.  If you took those two out of the swing state category, it’s probably a tie.  At best for Obama, tie…and that’s before the undecideds break for Mitt.

Not to mention the fact that Romney has already destroyed 9 points of Obama’s lead in swing states from 2008. 

Oh and have I forgotten to mention that Obama has managed to keep this only tied when he’s been burning through cash all summer, and Romney hasn’t started to dip into that huge war chest.  Now not every undecided voter is dumb, but those who are effected by ads more than research, well they’re also an ADD kind of bunch, and they’ll be more swayed by the ads in September and October (the months Romney will have lots of cash and Obama is broke) than the ads Barry ran back in the middle of summer.

Okay so let’s go state by state.  (I’m going to skip the charts, I find them boring….I will put them in if someone has a request for them*…but I think my previous looks will tell you that I am not going off the reservation for the sake of it).

Okay according to Real Clear Politics today (9/11) the count is 221 Electoral College votes for Obama, 191 for Romney and 128 up for grabs.  The undecided states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

So let’s get the easiest ones out of the way.  Romney is up 10 points in a Civitas poll in North Carolina and up 5 points in Rasmussen (hey, even in the ultra biased PPP Obama is up only up 1 point).  North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes will go Romney.

Obama 221-Romney 206

Virginia also has Romney up in the RCP average with a 6 point undecided, which will split Romney.  So Virginia and its 13 votes goes Romney.

Obama 221-Romney 219

If you can either just run the data pulling the undecideds to Romney or you can just ignored the skewed polls, but either way the fact is that Florida is going red.  Romney plus 29 votes

Romney 248-Obama 221

Now unless I see new data that says otherwise, I don’t think Colorado is going to the Republicans.  Same with New Hampshire and Nevada.  (Now Romney I think could win these, but I want to be somewhat conservative here).

Romney 248-Obama 240

So we’re down to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.

Now RCP has Obama slightly ahead in Iowa, but that’s because of two very biased polls.  The Rasmussen numbers have Romney ahead.  I trust Rasmussen more than the hacks at PPP.  Iowa goes Romney.

Romney 254-Obama 240

Now the polls, taken at the height of Obama’s bounce show Obama up in Wisconsin and Ohio. However, if you look at both the long term nature of those polls, plus biased nature of the polls that are coming in I believe both are going to Romney by a slight margin.  You can disagree but I think its Romney’s to lose.  At the moment Michigan still seems out of Romney’s reach.

Final number

Romney 282-256

Now in 2 weeks there will be a lot more polls and the bounce will be over.  I believe once that happens I’ll probably move 2-3 states into Romney’s side.

Also I’m going to predict right now a 52-53 seat majority in the Senate for the Republicans in 2013.  (Again if you really want me to break that down I will).

The fact is that this election is going to the GOP.  Pomp and circumstance won’t give people jobs…”hope and change” won’t get them off food stamp…and rank arrogance will not pay off the debt.  America can only be fooled for so long before we give up charlatans for substance.

If you are one of those Republicans who still is unsure about my analysis, then get out there and do something!  Make sure you’ve donated money and time to the campaigns you support (in fact do that even if you’re sure he’s going to win do that…I think we would all like the biggest majorities we can in the House and Senate). Talk to people you know, if you know fence sitters talk to them, take them to see 2016, reason with them and try to get them to vote Romney.  If you know die hard liberals talk to them too…I would suggest either the “the Obama faction is going to destroy your party, you need him to lose big if you’re going to ever have a comeback” approach…or if they’re in the anti-war crowd talk them into voting for Gary Johnson or do a write in for Paul.

We’re going to win.  That much I am certain of…but if you’re not you need to do everything you can to help.

* who is not a troll

See more of Cris Pace here at  The Conservative New Ager here ....................... http://conservativenewager.wordpress.com/

Highlights from Day 1 at the Republican National Convention

By Cris Pace

High points and low.

The low: That we had to start a day late.  That Paulbot threw yet another childish hissy fit (who cares they’re all liberals anyway). That a lot of our elected officials (McDonnell and Walker come to mind) are about as exciting as watching grass grow (even if they’re making sense in what they say).

The High:

Our next first lady

Gov. Christie tells it like it is

The great Mia Love

Sen Ayotte (she’s a little dull, but she’s clearly fighting off a cold)

SeeADVERTISEMENT

See more of Cris Pace here............... http://conservativenewager.wordpress.com/

Breaking: Paul Ryan is Mitt Romney's VP!!!

By Jared Allebest

Conservative Samizdat

Back in the early days of the 2012 election, there were talk of the possibility of Paul Ryan running for President and he denied any plans of throwing his hat in the ring. Yesterday, rumors starting swirling like a F5 tornado all day today about who Mitt Romney's pick would be. MSNBC and CBS declared late last night that the VP was Congressman Paul Ryan. However, Mitt Romney himself confirmed that Paul Ryan is the VP on the U.S.S. Minnesota.

Having Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's VP is a logical and bold choice for Mitt Romney. Lets go through each of those reasons.

Paul Ryan is a logical choice for Mitt Romney since the economy is still the top concern for American voters. He just doesn't talk about fixing the economy and reforming the government, he has actually put forward concrete plans. Paul Ryan's “Roadmap” is a fabulous plan to reduce our national debt. It is a bold, innovative, controversial and smart plan to head off the entitlement time bomb that America faces. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan share a vision of how to fix our economy. Paul Ryan liked Mitt's economic plan since a lot his ideas were similar to Paul Ryan's.

I think everyone, including libertarians, should be at least intrigued, if not excited, about a Romney/Ryan ticket because there is a legitimate complaint that American has been more focused on fixing problems abroad than at home. A Romney/Ryan ticket would be a strong indication that Mitt Romney plans to really focus on the problems here in America rather than abroad.  Moreover, by picking Paul Ryan, Mitt Romney is attempting to offer the American people the starkest and most interesting choice on domestic policy that Americans haven't seen in a very long time. If we were back in the 1980's, this would have been a Reagan/Kemp ticket.

Moreover, the ticket is a devastating blow to Obama when it comes to the issue of the economy. As we all know, Obama is weak on the economy because he's never taken the economy seriously. Moreover, Obama and the Democrats haven't passed a budget yet and will be the first President in history not to have passed a budget.

The Romney/Ryan team is an interesting and historic ticket given that it is a Mormon/Catholic ticket.  Its also a historic ticket because both religions have experienced discrimination in the US. There was a time that it was unheard of for a Catholic or a Mormon to be on a major ticket. This is a strong indication that we have come a long way since the 1960's when it comes to accepting a candidate based on his religion.

Picking Paul Ryan should appeal to religious conservatives since both men are pro-life. Moreover, Catholics have been turned off by the way Obama mislead the Catholic Church on the contraceptive issue. Its also a strong attempt to go after the Catholic vote. 

Romney's choice is should also be appealing to the TEA party conservatives. Paul Ryan has been a rising star for this emerging section of the Republican party. He's been called the intellectual leader of the Republican party. By picking Paul Ryan, Romney may be trying to find a balance between Establishment Republicans and the Tea Partiers. I think Romney succeeded in finding this balance. 

The Romney/Ryan ticket is an excellent challenge to the Obama/Biden ticket. Both the Presidential and Vice President will be a must see event. For a good preview of what a Ryan/Biden debate might look like, watch Paul Ryan take down Timothy Geithner. 

One vulnerability that Mitt Romney faces is that  Paul Ryan has been on record criticizing RomneyCare. But he has also been very vocal in his belief that his running mate will repeal ObamaCare.

Mitt Romney has made a very wise choice in selecting Romney. It is a bold and exciting ticket. Its a ticket that emphasizes Romney's focus on the economy. This is a smart move since it gives America a real clear choice about which direction we want to take on the economy. Its a perfect and serious challenge for the Obama Campaign. Way to go Mitt Romney for picking Paul Ryan!!!

See more of Jared Allebest  / Conservative Samizdat here ........................................................... 

http://conservativesamizdat.blogspot.com/

Mitt Romney gets his man...... It's Ryan!

By Evelio Perez

 Presumptive Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney has just announced to the many who downloaded his (free) V.P. I-phone application his selection of  Popular Wisconsin Congressman and House Budget Chairman  Paul Ryan as his Vice-Presidential running-mate and will announce his selection at 8:45 AM on the USS Wisconsin in Norfolk, Va.

 The first hint of Ryan being the one was when a Romney Charter plane flew to Janesville, Wis. (Ryan's Home Town) on Friday the 10th to add Rep. Ryan's name as the odds on favorite to be Romney's choice. 

 From the start Rep. Ryan, a Tea Party favorite and Republican rising star has been one of the prohibited favorites and rumored by many to be Governor Romney's choice to be his Vice-Presidential Running-Mate.

 After the many months of secrecy, Beth Myers, (head of Romney's V.P. search) along with Romney himself, have been auditioning on the campaign trail and selectively name dropping some great candidates along the line  like Gov. Chris Cristie, Sen. Rob Portman, Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Marco Rubio, Fmr. Sec. of State Condoleza Rice, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Gov. Susana Martinez, Gov. Jeb Bush, Gov. Nicky Haley, Gov. Bob McDonnell, Rep. Allen West and Sen. Jim Thune, the cat is finally out of the bag. It looks like important Party big-shots and masses of Ryan supporters made their views known and made them known  loud and clear.

 Like it or not, this is what is going to go against the Massive Obama (Chicago) Political machine. So strap yourselves in folks, it's going to be a doozy.........................

Paul Davis Ryan is the U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district, serving since 1999. He is a member of the Republican Party, and has been ranked among the party's most influential voices on economic policy.Wikipedia

Born: January 29, 1970 (age 42), Janesville Spouse: Janna Ryan Office: Representative (R-WI 1st District) since 1999 Education: Miami University

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan
http://www.facebook.com/reppaulryan

See more of Evelio Perez here.................  http://evelio-perez.blogspot.com/

President Obama Ruined the Economy, Paul Ryan Will Fix It

By Jesse  Merkel

Despite all of his speeches about bringing people together, President Obama is not a pragmatic leader who can find common ground like certain presidents who came before him. He talks a good game, but in reality is much more partisan than any president in the past three decades. A Democrat ideologue, he has governed under those principles since the day he took office. Sometimes ideologues allow their ideals to cloud their vision, at the expense of the people they govern.

Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress have increased the debt more in three years than President Bush did in eight, reports CBS News. That shows just how little he cares about the country’s financial woes, no matter how much he tells people that the economy will recover.

President Barack Obama

Obama has repeatedly understated and lied about America’s financial situation. The national debt is skyrocketing past $15 trillion dollars. A photo posted on the Independent Journal Review shows that on average, the federal government takes close to $2.2 trillion in tax revenue each year. The federal budget this year is close to $3.8 trillion. That gives us new debt of over $1.6 trillion.

Deep in our recent memories, we can recall how Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) talked about the ‘draconian’ cuts in the budget of $38.5 billion. This is hardly draconian. $38.5 billion is barely 1% of the entire federal budget. With projected annual increased, it could be less than that.

Obama is completely tone deaf on this issue. His proposed budget was for $3.6 trillion, further adding onto the debt. Even if the Bush tax cuts were allowed to expire next year, it would not even be close to covering it. The House defeated the Obama budget with a unanimous 414-0 vote.

Obama’s solution consists of tax increases, and lots of them. Supposedly if we raise taxes on the wealthiest 2%, we’ll all be living in a utopian paradise. Except it won’t work, and Obama knows that.

According to the IRS reports from 2009, the most recent year available, tax increases on the wealthiest Americans would barely make a dent. In 2009, there were approximately 8,274 Americans with an annual income over $10 million a year. If you taxed this group 100%, the federal government would take in about $240 billion, which is not even enough to fund it for a month.

Do we listen to the ‘occupiers’ and raise taxes more? If we included everyone who made at least $1 million a year and taxed them at 100%, that would bring in $726 billion a year, which might help the government for over two and a half months at current spending rates.

Taxing is not the answer, even when you take everything that everyone earning over a million dollars a year takes in.

In response to this fiscal disaster in the making, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) has drafted a budget for 2013, which drew immediate fire from Democrats.

Obama knows that people have come to depend on their entitlements. Scare the hell out of them and they won’t agree with any agenda put forth even if it won’t affect anyone over 50 and would make the financial problem much easier to solve. When a budget proposal similar to Ryan’s was released last year, videos were produced of a Ryan impersonator throwing a wheelchair-ridden grandmother off a cliff. So much for a party claiming for more 'civility.'

Additionally, Ryan’s budget proposes cutting the corporate income tax rate, which is now the highest in the world, from 35% to 25%, dead even with that of China.

The Ryan budget also closes loopholes and eliminates many deductions, things many Democrats claim to love, except when it is in a Republican budget and they can convince Granny she’s about to be fed to the crocodiles. The CBO also recently scored the Ryan budget, calculating that revenues would double over the course of the next ten years under this budget, from $2.444 trillion to $4.601 trillion by the year 2022.

While this budget still has room for tweaking, it’s a great first step. Over time it would not destroy  Independent Journal Review . It actually gives their existence a fighting chance, because if nothing is done, they will go bankrupt.

President Obama misled the American people this week when he criticized the Ryan plan. He will do it again, in order to drive its negatives higher in the polls.

Read more .......... http://www.policymic.com/articles/6446/cbo-report-paul-ryan-budget-would-double-revenue-to-4-6-trillion-by-2022

Romney and the Wisconsin Response

Personal Rantings and Complaints

We as American Citizen's have various freedoms that in Today's day and age seem to be disappearing. One of the key features of being a citizen of the United States of America is the ability to voice ones opinion and to speak ones mind. This is my blog to talk about the opinions I've come to form over the years.

Sunday, April 1, 2012

BY CHRISTOPHER MASON

The Wisconsin Republican Primary is only a few days away and former Governor Mitt Romney has received multiple endorsements this week that will no doubt have pushed him closer to winning this election and hopefully, closer to the Presidency. One of the questions that comes with these endorsements is, why now?

Well the answer to that is simple enough, why not? Wisconsin moved their primary up from where it normally would have been. This means that not only is it rare for Wisconsin to make a difference but this election in it's own has been different for most of the states were proportional. This means that whoever got X amount of the vote would also receive X amount of the delegates up for state from that state. 

This is different in comparison to Wisconsin which is a winner takes all state. Rick Santorum just weeks ago was leading Romney in Wisconsin which is a relatively blue collar state. The endorsement from Marco Rubio comes at a crucial time for Mitt Romney and it will help him capitalize on the failing campaigns of Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. 

This week alone Newt Gingrich has let go of 1/3rd of his staff, and his campaign staff manager. He swears that this will help him on his path to the nomination but the problem that many see here is that the Republican party is at odds with themselves. As a precursor, Newt Gingrich has also said that he expects Rick Santorum and himself will welcome Mitt Romney as the nominee with open arms if he can get to that magic delegate count. What I, nor many others who are watching this campaign, can understand is why are you even dragging this race out? Why doesn't Newt and Rick Santorum just back out now and give Mitt Romney the nomination. (We all know he's going to be the nominee.)

Marco Rubio endorsing Mitt Romney when he did, shortly after Rick Santorum's rant about his words being taken out of context and something about bullshit, comes at a pivotal time. Rick Santorum has been referenced as before, a hot head. He has at various times fueled the argument by many on the left that we stick to our religion and that's that. He is a terrible candidate. Religion is not supposed to be forced upon someone else and you can see that with Mitt Romney, he doesn't force Mormonism on us.

When Mitt Romney was governor of my state her in MA he didn't force candy taxes the way our current governor has contemplated, same with soda, we now have a new tax on beer, which for Mitt Romney would have been easy things to do because as a Mormon he doesn't like taking anything that would effect the human body such as sugar, caffeine, tobacco, ect., If Rick Santorum was not so radical he might have had a chance, but now with all these key endorsements coming out it helps to play with the fact that Romney can energize the base. 

The best endorsement right now for Mitt Romney is the endorsement of Congressmen Paul Ryan of Wisconsin. This is a big endorsement, maybe even bigger than that of Marco Rubio and the only reason I say that is Rubio did not endorse when Romney was running for Florida or even Puerto Rico which it may have helped to sway it a little more. Paul Ryan endorsed a little under a week of the Wisconsin Primary which does help to shape those who take what their legislators recommend at face value. This also is great for those people who are on the fence and really like Paul Ryan and hearing him back Romney over Santorum, it does show that Santorum's credibility is gone. 

Mitt Romney has stated he believes he is going to win the Wisconsin Primary. At the moment, Romney has estimated 565 delegates. He is almost halfway there to the 1,144 needed to win the nomination. The District of Columbia and Maryland also have primaries on Tuesday and Mitt Romney is expected to win all of them bringing him closer to the nomination. Then later on in the month states like Connitecut, New York, and Rhode Island are all projected to go to Mitt Romney with Pennsylvania being a large toss up state.

Here's to hoping, best wishes Governor Romney!

See more of C.S. Mason here ...............  http://politicalnonsenseandcrap.blogspot.com/