Rick Santorum Considering Dropping Out Before Pennsylvania Primary

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By Jared Allebest 

The possibility of a loss in his home state of Pennsylvania might force Rick Santorum to drop out of the Republican primary sooner than he’d planned, say GOP strategists. Given that Rick Santorum faces a possible embarrassing defeat in his home state, he's considering suspending his campaign:  

Santorum is notoriously strong-willed, and those close to him say that party elders will not be able to convince him to exit the race if he thinks he has a shot at the Republican nomination.

But one of Santorum’s close friends told The Hill that while the former Pennsylvania senator remains confident about winning his home state and using that to build May momentum, if that confidence falters, he might exit the race. Pennsylvania state Sen. Jake Corman (R), a longtime friend of Santorum and his family, said if it appeared Santorum wasn’t going to win the state, the former senator could drop his campaign.

“He’s a realist; he doesn’t have his head in the clouds,” Corman told The Hill. “As long as he sees a pathway to the nomination he’s going to stay in it, but he won’t stay in it to prove a point. If he gets to the point where he doesn’t think he’ll be the nominee, he’ll get out.”

One of the big factors that is weighing heavily on Santorum's mind is facing the possibility of losing in his home state twice which would tarnish his political future:

Many Republican strategists argue that Santorum has resurrected his political career after a bad 2006 Senate loss with his surprisingly strong presidential campaign — but that another loss in his home state could undo all that work, leading to predictions that if he thinks he could lose Pennsylvania, he might bow out.

“If he loses Pennsylvania twice, that’s going to really hobble him in the future. That’d be very hard to live down,” said Kirsten Fedewa, Mike Huckabee’s 2008 communications director.

Another point for Rick Santorum that he will probably be considering is that his support is shrinking dramatically after suffering a humiliating three state loss just a few days ago

“There’s a point on the campaign trail where you start seeing diminishing returns, thinner crowds, you’re not getting the big boost on your website fundraising, the enthusiasm factor is dying down,” she said. “He’s going to be feeling it on the stump and seeing the impact on his campaign. He’s an anti-establishment candidate, so what the establishment does or doesn't do isn’t going to persuade him — but when he sees the intensity factor waning, that’s going to weigh heavily.”

Another factor that Rick Santorum is considering is that there is no realistic way for him to continue on in the race no matter how confident he feels in Pennsylvania and in the following primary elections. Dick Morris explains why: 

Rick Santorum has now punted April and is saying that we need to wait until May for him to rack up significant totals of delegates. Fat chance.

After DC, Maryland, and Wisconsin, Romney has about 640 delegates. He will probably win New York (95 delegates), Del (17), Ct (28), and RI (19) raising his total to about 770. He’ll lose Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri but he’ll get his share raising his total to 800 delegates). He could, and probably will, win Pennsylvania giving him 870. (Santorum doesn’t have delegates in each part of his home state).

Then comes May, Rick’s favorite month. But Romney will probably win Maine (24), Indiana (46), and Oregon (28) giving him just shy of 1,000 delegates. He’ll probably lose Arkansas (36), and might lose Kentucky (45), Nebraska (35), North Carolina (45). He will however pick up some portion of their delegations in the proportional representation states. And he’ll likely lose the big May primary – Texas with 155 votes. But since Texas votes by Congressional District, he’ll win his share. Most likely, he will exit May with over 1,000 delegates and could approach 1,100.

Then, by June 6th, he will vault past the 1,144 he needs for the nomination by winning California, New Jersey, Utah, South Dakota, Washington State, Montana, and New Mexico.

Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul not only have no chance at winning a majority of the delegates, but they also have no chance of deadlocking the convention. The numbers don’t add up.

Rick Santorum shouldn't have to think too hard about whether to drop out or not. All the evidence strongly indicates that he cannot win Pennsylvania since Mitt Romney is leading in the polls in that state, he cannot win any of the subsequent primary elections nor can he win the Republican nomination. Moreover, he can't even cause mischief by creating a brokered convention because the delegate math states that is not possible. 

Mitt Romney bowed out graciously when he realized that he could not win the Republican nomination and then worked hard to help McCain. Rick Santorum should do the same so that everyone can focus on making President Obama a one term President.

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