Sunday, November 4, 2012

My Prediction For Tuesday: Romney 295-Obama 243

By Jared Allebest
Conservative Samizdat
A lot of people have been predicting what the Electoral College map will look like on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. One article gathered 9 different predictions gathered from various sources that show Obama winning a second term. 
However, Karl Rove has Romney winning at least 279 electoral votesand Michael Barone, a columnist for the Washington Examiner, is predicting that Mitt Romney will win 315 electoral votes
Two University of Colorado professors, Michael J. Berry's and Kenneth N. Bickers published an article back in August that that Mitt Romney would win the election by 330 electoral votes while Obama gets only 208 electoral votes and still won't back down from that prediction.Michael J. Berry's and Kenneth N. Bickers do not base their predictions on poll numbers but on economic data which are extremely accurate in predicting the outcomes of presidential elections.
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. [...]
The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election. [...]
In addition to state and national unemployment rates, the authors analyzed changes in personal income from the time of the prior presidential election. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently: Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates, while Republicans are held more responsible for fluctuations in personal income.
Despite some high profile names predicting Mitt Romney winning the election, I'd like to offer my humble prediction of how I think the Electoral College numbers will be. Look below and tell me if you think I'm right or wrong: 
By the way, predictions are just predictions. Don't get excited or depressed by what you see on the news or read in print or online. The important thing is YOU get out and vote. Your vote does matter. You and the millions of Americans who will go to the polls on Tuesday will decide if America will keep Obama or make him a one term president. Go Vote on Tuesday!!

See more of Jared Allebest / Conservative Samizdat here........

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