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Romney is going to Win–Another look at the Electoral College: A look from mid-September
By Cris Pace
I wanted to hold off on this, it’s the same look at statistics that utterly bore me, but Republicans are proving to be the biggest worriers in the world.
But I can’t entirely blame them.
You have half brained radio talk show hosts spouting doom and gloom for Romney and the Republican party without anything to back it up (Levin, Ingram, Limbaugh, Bruce…yeah I mean you guys, I know your mentally challenged boys Santorum and Newt didn’t win, but shut up, you clearly are not the voice of the future of this party, just admit it and leave).
You have steadily worsening economic numbers. Least of which is that Moody’s is about to downgrade us again. Obama may try to blame the Republicans for that, but the fact is that Americans, for better or worse, believe that the buck stops in the Oval Office (and this time they would be right in blaming a president for economic disaster).
Now here are some things to consider right now. The polls for this week will show a slight bounce, but it’s called a bounce for a reason, it will come down. All of Obama’s bases are pissed at him for one reason or another and they are not likely to come out for him in the numbers they did in 2008. Further you must keep in mind, as Dick Morris keeps pointing out, the undecided voters always, always, always break two-thirds for the challenger.
Now according to Rasmussen (the most accurate polling firm in 2008 ) at the height of the bounce Obama is up only by 2 points in swing states. wo points. Two measly points is his bounce in swing states. Here’s Rasmussen’s Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. I hate to say this but Romney is probably not winning Pennsylvania or Colorado. If you took those two out of the swing state category, it’s probably a tie. At best for Obama, tie…and that’s before the undecideds break for Mitt.
Oh and have I forgotten to mention that Obama has managed to keep this only tied when he’s been burning through cash all summer, and Romney hasn’t started to dip into that huge war chest. Now not every undecided voter is dumb, but those who are effected by ads more than research, well they’re also an ADD kind of bunch, and they’ll be more swayed by the ads in September and October (the months Romney will have lots of cash and Obama is broke) than the ads Barry ran back in the middle of summer.
Okay so let’s go state by state. (I’m going to skip the charts, I find them boring….I will put them in if someone has a request for them*…but I think my previous looks will tell you that I am not going off the reservation for the sake of it).
Okay according to Real Clear Politics today (9/11) the count is 221 Electoral College votes for Obama, 191 for Romney and 128 up for grabs. The undecided states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.
So let’s get the easiest ones out of the way. Romney is up 10 points in a Civitas poll in North Carolina and up 5 points in Rasmussen (hey, even in the ultra biased PPP Obama is up only up 1 point). North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes will go Romney.
Obama 221-Romney 206
Virginia also has Romney up in the RCP average with a 6 point undecided, which will split Romney. So Virginia and its 13 votes goes Romney.
Obama 221-Romney 219
If you can either just run the data pulling the undecideds to Romney or you can just ignored the skewed polls, but either way the fact is that Florida is going red. Romney plus 29 votes
Romney 248-Obama 221
Now unless I see new data that says otherwise, I don’t think Colorado is going to the Republicans. Same with New Hampshire and Nevada. (Now Romney I think could win these, but I want to be somewhat conservative here).
Romney 248-Obama 240
So we’re down to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio.
Now RCP has Obama slightly ahead in Iowa, but that’s because of two very biased polls. The Rasmussen numbers have Romney ahead. I trust Rasmussen more than the hacks at PPP. Iowa goes Romney.
Romney 254-Obama 240
Now the polls, taken at the height of Obama’s bounce show Obama up in Wisconsin and Ohio. However, if you look at both the long term nature of those polls, plus biased nature of the polls that are coming in I believe both are going to Romney by a slight margin. You can disagree but I think its Romney’s to lose. At the moment Michigan still seems out of Romney’s reach.
Now in 2 weeks there will be a lot more polls and the bounce will be over. I believe once that happens I’ll probably move 2-3 states into Romney’s side.
Also I’m going to predict right now a 52-53 seat majority in the Senate for the Republicans in 2013. (Again if you really want me to break that down I will).
The fact is that this election is going to the GOP. Pomp and circumstance won’t give people jobs…”hope and change” won’t get them off food stamp…and rank arrogance will not pay off the debt. America can only be fooled for so long before we give up charlatans for substance.
If you are one of those Republicans who still is unsure about my analysis, then get out there and do something! Make sure you’ve donated money and time to the campaigns you support (in fact do that even if you’re sure he’s going to win do that…I think we would all like the biggest majorities we can in the House and Senate). Talk to people you know, if you know fence sitters talk to them, take them to see 2016, reason with them and try to get them to vote Romney. If you know die hard liberals talk to them too…I would suggest either the “the Obama faction is going to destroy your party, you need him to lose big if you’re going to ever have a comeback” approach…or if they’re in the anti-war crowd talk them into voting for Gary Johnson or do a write in for Paul.
We’re going to win. That much I am certain of…but if you’re not you need to do everything you can to help.