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Monday, October 15, 2012

Presidential Polls 2012: Real Clear Politics Shows Romney, Obama Tied Ahead of Next Debate

By Jesse Merkel
Policymic
The clock is ticking as the second presidential debate between President Barack Obama and former Governor Mitt Romney at Hofstra University in New York City approaches. The gravity of this debate is undoubtedly weighing on both candidates' shoulders. For both men, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

Rasmussen has Romney leading Obama, 49% to 48%. Rasmussen has Romney and Obama tied in the swing state polls, even several days after Joe Biden's rallying "performance" at the VP debate.
A second strong showing like the one Romney enjoyed nearly two weeks ago at the first presidential debate in Denver could help seal the deal with the American people, while a stronger showing by the president could help to stop the bleeding off of support he’s been seeing in the polls.
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Without a doubt, President Obama will take this debate more seriously. Despite reports that he actually believed that he had won the first debate immediately after he left the stage, the president has undoubtedly learned just how much one debate can matter. In a week and a half, Romney has gone from trailing in most of the polls to taking a lead or tying Obama in most polls:


Gallup has Mitt Romney ahead of President Obama, 49% to 47% among likely voters.
While a new Political/GWU Battleground Poll shows Obama up by one generally, it has Romney ahead in the swing states. And for those individuals that like to peer through the looking glass into the mirror universe every once in a while, the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama up by one point in a D+9 sample. (Cue the Twilight Zone music.)
RealClearPolitics.com has Romney and Obama tied at 47.3% each. 
For those that believe that it’s only the state-by-state polls and predictors that matter, hold onto your hats. The RCP electoral count used to have Obama up ahead of Romney by dozens of electoral votes. Now, the electoral map has all but evened out, as more and more states have moved into the toss-up category, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.
When it comes to predicting elections accurately, one should also make sure not to ignore the electoral predicting model from the University of Colorado. Going back to 1980, the model can and be used to predict election outcomes with incredible accuracy, from the Regan Revolution to the Obama electoral landslide. So what does it take is coming for 2012? A Romney victory.
The University of Colorado model said in August that Romney would win the election by 325 electoral votes. On October 4th after the first debate, that number was revised, with Romney still winning by 330 electoral votes.
It’s do-or-die time for both campaigns. There is little doubt that Obama will do his best to come out swinging, although it would be unwise to expect him to echo the now widely questioned performance of Vice President Joe Biden at last Thursdays debate. Obama will try to do what Romney did two weeks ago: find the perfect mix of articulate, confrontational, and presidential.
This debate, which will be a town hall style event, will be covering both foreign and domestic policy. Romney has a chance to finish making his case, which he will undoubtedly do on subjects like the attack on the Libyan ConsulatetaxesObamacaregas prices. and the poor economy. Obama’s on the other hand recently tipped their hand that Bain Capital, Romney’s old investment firm, would be brought up. Of course, one would have to be a complete fool to believe that Romney has not prepared for it by now.
Romney has no choices but to fight just as hard as he did in Denver. His crowds have beenswelling, he has taken a lead in several swing states, and it is now apparent to everyone that he could not only win, but win convincingly. Everyone batten down the hatches. This one will definitely be more of a slugfest than the first meeting these two men had in Denver! 

Be sure to tune in tomorrow night for continuing coverage of the next presidential debate live from Hofstra University. Bookmark this page and check back tomorrow night for continuing live coverage!

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